Prediction markets and Up or Down settlement
Two things are worth documenting precisely here, because both are routinely misread: what decides the outcome, and what happens on an exact tie.
Where the markets come from
Markets are sourced from Polymarket, including its epoch series for short-duration windows. Hypertradeworx supplies the interface, the order routing and a self-custodial wallet to hold the position; it is not the market maker and does not decide outcomes.
Up or Down windows
Each window opens with a price to beat. You take Up or Down on where the asset finishes when the window closes, and the position settles on its own at the close with nothing to manage afterwards. Windows run at 5 and 15 minutes on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP and Dogecoin.
Settlement is a TWAP, not spot
Outcomes settle against a Chainlink TWAP stream rather than a raw spot price: a 30-second lookback for 5-minute windows and a 60-second lookback for 15-minute windows. This is the single most important detail on the page, because the spot price can sit dollars away from the TWAP that actually decides the window. The price shown on the market page reads the settlement stream rather than a ticker feed, so what you see is what settles you.
Ties
An exact tie resolves Up.
Questions
- What price decides an Up or Down window?
- A Chainlink TWAP stream, with a 30-second lookback on 5-minute windows and a 60-second lookback on 15-minute windows. Not the spot price, which can differ from the settlement TWAP by dollars.
- What happens if the price finishes exactly flat?
- An exact tie resolves Up.
- Which assets and durations are available?
- Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP and Dogecoin, on 5-minute and 15-minute windows.
- Do I need a Polymarket account?
- No. Markets are sourced from Polymarket but the position is held in your own self-custodial wallet through the app.